In the wake of South Korea’s martial law crisis, constitutional crisis, impeachment crisis and potential economic crisis, Seer has launched prediction markets to forecast these chaotic events.
Martial Law?
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on 3 December 2024. The National Assembly repealed it within a few hours, but the President and military initially resisted. Seer launched a market about martial law before President Yoon eventually backed down after mass protests and resistance from the assembly.
Seer traders were confident that martial law would not last one week:
Impeachment or Resignation? Or Neither?
Now that martial law has been lifted, there is uncertainty about what will happen to President Yoon. The impeachment vote is currently scheduled for Saturday, 7 December 2024.
The three distinct possibilities about Yoon’s status as President on 11 December 2024:
- Impeachment. Yoon is impeached and his presidential powers are suspended until South Korea’s Constitutional Court hears the case. At that point, he would be reinstated or removed as President. The opposition party will need at least eight members from Yoon’s ruling party to vote for impeachment. Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) was divided over martial law, and none voted for the impeachment motion, but the head of PPP is now calling for impeachment.
- Actively serving. Yoon resists calls for his resignation and the impeachment vote fails. He continues to serve as President with full presidential powers.
- Leaves office. Yoon is resisting demands from public protests and the opposition party to resign, for now. His defence minister has officially stepped down, but that has not quelled the public outrage over martial law.
Here is the Seer market about Yoon’s status at the end of 11 December 2024:
The market sees Yoon likely being impeached with a small chance of resignation.
Economic fallout?
The uncertainty over martial law, and now impeachment, has sent shockwaves through the South Korean financial system:
- Markets and stocks plunged.
- The finance ministry promised “unlimited” liquidity to stabilize financial markets.
- Massive crypto sell-off on local exchanges.
Seer created “conditional markets” on Yoon’s status as President at the end of 11 December 2024 to measure the economic consequences of what could happen to President Yoon.
There are three scalar markets forecasting the value of the KOSPI composite index dependent on Yoon’s status as President:
These markets generate information about the future, in this case the economic consequences (measured by the KOSPI index) of the different outcomes for Yoon. In turn, the market forecasts can help inform decisions on how to proceed, which is why conditional markets are often used as “decision markets.”
These markets are forecasting a dynamic situation, so please check the latest news on South Korea before trading.
Seer is a decentralized prediction marketplace. Users can buy and sell shares, create markets and provide liquidity. Markets are resolved using Reality.eth and arbitrated through Kleros Court. Seer offers different types of prediction markets beyond traditional binary Yes/No outcomes, including scalar, multi-scalar and multi-categorical markets. Implementing the Gnosis conditional token framework, Seer can offer “conditional markets.” These are prediction markets dependent on the outcomes of other prediction markets, allowing for futarchy, decision markets and info finance.
