Seer next-level prediction marketplace: create, trade, and farm
The new ground-breaking prediction marketplace Seer launched on October 11th. Using the Gnosis conditional token framework and Kleros Court, Seer gives traders both more flexibility and security in their investments.
Seer gives users more options
There are dozens of prediction markets operating, but the overwhelming majority offer the same features and markets. Seer gives users more options by offering functionality unique from other prediction markets:
- Permissionless market creation where users can create markets at will.
- Yield-bearing tokens remove the cost of capital for traders.
- Fungible outcome tokens are not tied to the Seer front end and can be bought and sold on any ERC20 compatible exchange.
- Scalar markets allow traders to invest in specific numeric outcomes along a continuous scale. For example, “What will be Kamala Harris’ popular vote percentage in the 2024 Presidential election?” or “What will be the Euro Area Inflation Rate for October?”
- Contingent markets allow for markets to now be connected to other market outcomes. For example, “Will the price of Bitcoin drop below $50K?” could be dependent upon Kamala Harris winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
- Yield farming opportunities, as users are the liquidity providers on Seer’s automated market maker (AMM). Providing liquidity to a market will earn a percentage of that market’s trading fees as well as token subsidies. Liquidity engines like Bunni incentivize long-term liquidity provision.
At the same time, Seer reduces risks for users
- Market verification system to notify traders that a user-created market was vetted for safety. “Unverified” markets are still open for trading but at the user’s own risk.
- “Invalid” outcome tokens offered on every market allow traders to hedge the risk of a market being invalidated.
- Market resolution through reality.eth combines crowdsourcing answers with incentives for accuracy.
- Dispute arbitration with Kleros Court. In the event of a dispute over a market resolution users can seek arbitration through Kleros Court. Instead of using token voting, a randomly selected jury would hear the case and be incentivized to vote for the correct answer.
Seer offers more types of markets
- Categorical markets: users buy and sell shares on whether an event will or will not happen, with a correct share redeeming for the full amount purchased, and losing shares receiving nothing. The share prices can reflect the probability of the event occurring.
- Scalar markets: users buy and sell shares for numbers along a continuous scale. This includes poll numbers, stock prices, and economic indicators. Shares redeem proportionally to where the outcome landed along the scale. Share prices reflect where traders expect the outcome to land.
- Contingent markets: users buy and sell shares in a market that is dependent on the outcome of another (parent) market. These can be categorical or scalar or a combination of the two. For example, “How many inches of snow in Kiev?” could be dependent on the “Yes” outcome for “Will it snow in Kiev, Ukraine on Friday, November 1, 2024?”
Launched with unique U.S. Presidential election markets
Seer launched with both categorical and scalar markets about the U.S. presidential election:
- Who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
- How many popular votes will [candidate] receive in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? [Multi Scalar]
- Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
- Control of Congress after the 2024 election?
This includes three markets contingent on the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election:
- Contingent on Harris winning: Will Trump be sentenced to any time behind bars in 2024?
- Contingent on Harris winning: The price of Bitcoin at the start of 2025? [Scalar]
- Contingent on Trump winning: The price of Bitcoin at the start of 2025? [Scalar]
Since the launch Seer users have created additional markets. And with permissionless market creation anyone can create markets at will. To protect user safety, markets are tagged “Verified” after having gone through a strict vetting process.
Prediction markets have arrived
The prediction market space has exploded, with DefiLlama reporting TVL growing from $34 million to over $257 million in 2024. The primary U.S. Presidential election market on Polymarket, the largest prediction market in the world, has over $2 billion in trading volume.
Leveraging the Wisdom of Crowds
Prediction markets are an efficient way to quantify conventional wisdom (i.e., the ‘wisdom of crowds’) about future events. Their accuracy was first observed by Sir Francis Galton in 1907 and recently popularized by the book “The Wisdom of Crowds” by James Surowiecki. These ‘event futures’ markets have been outperforming the polls and experts in forecasting elections since 1988. Other successful use cases include forecasting U.S. and global economic indicators, movie box office, flu outbreaks, vaccine effectiveness, and hurricane tracking.
About Seer
Seer is a non-custodial and decentralized prediction market protocol existing on the Ethereum and Gnosis blockchains. Traders use DAI tokens to buy and sell outcome tokens on whether an event will happen. The prices for these outcome tokens can reflect the probabilities of that event happening. Built using the Gnosis conditional token framework, users can create conditional markets, merge outcome tokens, and create and trade in both categorical and scalar markets. Seer users are also the liquidity providers and can profit through yield farming.
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